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The longer plans simply cost less per week.
| 4-Week | 12-Week | BEST VALUE12-Month | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charged today | $12.48 | $24.98 | $97 |
| Then | $24.97 / 4 wks | $49.97 / 12 wks | nothing for 12 months |
| Your 1st year | $287 | $175 | $97 |
| Per day | $0.79 | $0.48 | $0.27 |
| You save | — | $112 | $190 |
| Price locked for | 4 weeks | 12 weeks | 12 months |
Over your first year the 12-Month plan saves you $190 against the 4-Week plan — same training, same app, same guarantee. The 4-Week and 12-Week prices are introductory and renew at full price; the 12-Month price is locked for the whole year.
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Andrew, 29 · “Movements that used to injure me, I now do pain-free.”memberYou can bucket. You cannot wait for significance.
All four models are already coded as variants in the live bundle (v2_1 · v2_2 · v2_3 · v2_4). The only thing missing is randomised assignment — VITE_QUIZ_VARIANT is a build-time constant, so 100% of traffic gets one arm. Making it bucket is roughly one hour of Nic's time.
But the quiz paywall gets 13 views a day. That is the binding constraint on every test design below.
| Test | Effect to detect | Views needed | Days at 13/day | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conversion A/B | +10% | 21,668 | 1,661 | impossible |
| Conversion A/B | +20% | 5,630 | 432 | impossible |
| Conversion A/B | +40% | 1,512 | 116 | too slow to steer by |
| Revenue per visitor | +20% | 7,448 | 571 | impossible |
| Revenue per visitor | +40% | 1,862 | 143 | the realistic floor |
| Annual share of sales | 17% → 42% | ~140 sales | ~82 | the one test with real power |
80% power, α=.05 two-sided, 50/50 split. Baseline measured over 90 days: 1,174 paywall views → 604 buy-clicks → 154 paid → $7,091.97 · conversion 13.12% · ASP $46.05 · RPV $6.04 (sd $18.61, CV 3.08 — revenue is high-variance, which is why RPV needs ~10× the sample of a conversion test).
Aga's call: "Restore annual, charged today, at $97." Ship it as the hybrid — annual $97 charged today and pre-selected, framed "38% off / save $60" and never "50% off", with the 4-week and 12-week ramps kept at their current prices as the volume ramp and the decoy. $157-behind-the-trial is built as the fallback, not a concurrent arm.
Two reasons it is sequential, not 50/50: $97 is a permanent 38% cut to the flagship's list price and lowers the basis an acquirer underwrites; and the $97 case contradicts itself — it publishes $157, charges $97, and renews at $157, which is a 1.6× renewal shock.
The reasoning below still stands for how to run test #2 when it comes — and it is why the first cohort read is a guardrail, not a verdict.
A fair 50/50 fight against today's paywall spends half your traffic on the arm you already know is worst, for four months, to learn something the mix data has already told you.
Run both good options against each other instead. Arm A and Arm B are both modelled well above today, so whichever wins, you have already won from day one. The test's job is to pick between two good options — not to decide whether to fix the paywall.
| Arm | Design | Modelled vs today | Risk it carries |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fallback — $157 + trial | Time-Horizon + 12-Month rung · 4wk and 12wk still charge today · annual $157, $0 today, 7-day trial, pre-selected | +40% | Strictly additive to what is live. Nothing that currently works is removed. |
| SHIP — $97 hybrid | Goldilocks · $97/mo coaching decoy · annual $97 charged today · monthly $24.97 $0-today | +53% | Higher upside, but sets a second annual price and needs a renewal-price decision. |
Guardrail, not a significance rule: if either arm's rolling 14-day revenue-per-visitor drops below $6.04 (today's measured baseline), kill that arm immediately. That protects against catastrophe in two weeks instead of four months.
Annual at $97 behind a 7-day trial. At the measured 36.9% trial conversion it models at −9% versus today. $97 only works if it is charged today; $157 only works behind the trial. The two prices are not interchangeable — each is safe in exactly one of the two mechanics.
The reason: today's start-to-paid is a healthy 61.8% precisely because the live 4-week and 12-week tiers charge immediately. Flipping every tier to a trial trades certain cash for gated cash. That is why Arm A keeps the direct-charge rungs rather than replacing them.
At $157 the ladder inverted: 12-Week at $24.98 is $0.30/day, cheaper per day than $157/year at $0.43/day. The page sells in per-day framing, so it would have argued "commit longer, pay less" while pricing the opposite — and the ramps would have had to be repriced.
At $97 that problem disappears. With the ramps left exactly as they are today:
| Tier | Price (unchanged) | Per day |
|---|---|---|
| 4-Week | $12.48 | $0.45 |
| 12-Week | $24.98 | $0.30 |
| 12-Month | $97 | $0.27 ✓ |
Monotonic, with zero changes to the ramps — which is exactly what Aga's ruling requires. An earlier draft of this page showed $19.97 / $39.97; that was derived to fix the $157 ladder, was never agreed, and has been reverted.
Bucketing without instrumentation produces a test you cannot read. Three things ship together or none of them do:
| # | Requirement | Why it is load-bearing |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sticky assignment — bucket once on first quiz load, persist to localStorage + cookie | A visitor who sees a different arm on return corrupts both arms |
| 2 | Emit quiz_variant as a GA4 event param and user property | Without it you cannot split the funnel by arm at all |
| 3 | Forward the captured UTMs + variant into Stripe subscription_data.metadata | Fixes the test and the dark attribution in one change — subscription.metadata is empty on all 154 sales today |
Sample-size maths, baseline and reproducers: tools/finance/quiz_buys_90d.py · tools/quiz-analytics/pull_quiz_deep.py · tools/finance/pricing_model_rerun.py. Prototype only — never wired to the live quiz.